You fall in love with your plan, and love is blind. You don’t see the fatal flaw.
I know a man who jumped headfirst into a new venture based on building a chain of used CD stores. The punch line? It was 2000. Napster was already there. Do you see the fatal flaw? He didn’t. And this was a man who’d had a string of successes. 
Love is blind.
So here’s a trick that might, sometimes, if you’re lucky, help you see the fatal flaw.
- It takes imagination. So close your eyes, relax your shoulders, take a deep breath and let it out slowly.
- Jump in your imagination to the future. Go to three years from now.
- Now pretend that, there in the future, you know that the business you are starting now, your baby, your dream, is over. It failed. I know, that’s hard, but it’s a game; it’s only in your imagination, so make that leap.
- You’re sitting at a table, maybe in a coffee shop, maybe at lunch, and somebody asks you: “What happened? Why did it fail?”
- Now, using your imagination, your intelligence and what you know about your business, answer that question. This is fiction now, so you have to tell a story. Make it believable. What happened?
This helps you think about flaws. Was it competition? Did the management lose interest? Was there not enough money? Did some new technology come in?
I don’t know for sure, but I believe that if my friend with the used CD stores had done this exercise, he would have come up with the possibility of a change in the way we deal with music, meaning Napster, downloading, iTunes and so on.
And, for the record, I haven’t done the research, either, but what do you think? Would you like to own a used CD store? What do you think has happened to the sale of used CDs?
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
I started a used CD store/website (www.thecdexchange.com) back in 1998, and it’s still doing fine. There are billions of these things floating around, and there is still a pretty strong secondary market for them. I’m just glad I didn’t ever get into selling NEW product, that’s where the real hit has been taken. Used CDs (and also DVDs) are still doing OK.
I started my business with almost nothing, and made a decent income over the last decade or so. I bought a nice house, and put my wife through school, so I would say that I’ve been successful. I’m realistic about it, and I know it won’t last forever, so I’m already spending time thinking about what to do next. I figure I have a few more years left, perhaps more. I hope there will always be people who prefer the superior sound and tangibility of CDs over downloads.
Wow, thanks Bill for the reminder, which embarrasses me a bit because it’s such a clear counter-example. You caught me making quick assumptions, and I apologize. I have no doubt that making a decent income, buying a nice house, and putting somebody through school is a good measure of success. So in your case the fatal flaw lesson I intended doesn’t hold up for that business, even if it was the case with my friend.
Your experience pitted against my quick assumption also serves as an excellent reminder that 1.) there are no absolutes, every case is different; and 2.) bootstrapping and ending up owning the business and making a good living is a really good thing.
So thanks, excellent comment!
Tim
The sales of used CDs have been strong in places like half.com (ebay), Amazon and others. I don’t think it would be a good startup idea nowadays. Used CDs are sold for pennies and it’s a quite saturated market. You’ll need to sell many CDs in order to produce a fair amount of profit.
Tim, your basic point was correct…and I mentioned myself that it’s just a matter of time. I suppose I did some things right that perhaps your friend did not, which have allowed me to last a little longer. I’m realistic enough to admit that my business will probably be gone in a few years.
That’s OK though, it’s not my life’s calling, I will just find something that makes me even happier when that time comes. I’m still young.
Takeoffzone is correct, in that it would definitely not be a good startup idea today. The glory days are over for this business. I survive now off my loyal regular customers primarily, and also by dealing in DVDs as an increasingly large percentage of my revenue.
Even though my business is bound to eventually die, I am proud of my accomplishment, and I find no shame in its demise because I know that the things that have caused it to die were entirely out of my control. I guess I feel like I’m successful because I made it this far and hopefully a little farther!
Anyways, enough babbling. Back to surviving for another day!
Should women really become entrepreneurs?
Suzanne, wow, you should explain that question or give it a context, because it stands there as written it seems like a throwback to the prejudice of maybe 100 years ago. Why would anybody even ask this question?
Tim