What are black swans and what have they got to do with planning?
The term ‘back swan’ is a metaphor for a highly improbable event, and is derived from the previously held assumption that ‘all swans were white‘ until the discovery of black swans in Australia. The term ‘black swan’ then came to connote an occurrence or an event which was previously assumed to be impossible. (Nassim Taleb) The concept is not a new one. In economics, such black swan events are known as outliers, in that they sit outside the range of typical occurrences spread around a mean.
Find out what all of this has to do with planning in this new article -
Black Swans and Strategic Planning by Alan Gleeson (Palo Alto Software UK)
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The concept has originally to do with the area of concept formation in epistemology in the field of philosophy. The concept of swans is still valid after you have introduced a black swan into the mix. http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/concept-formation.html
Sometimes I leave post-its on the desks telling people to go there. ,
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